The review of the trade agreement between Mexico, the United States and Canada could stretch far beyond initial expectations, potentially allowing Mexico better terms after upcoming American midterm elections or even after Donald Trump finishes his current term, according to Dr. Gerardo Herrera of Universidad Iberoamericana. The specialist noted that political turbulence in Washington turns any commercial deal into a prolonged tug-of-war rather than a swift handshake.
Herrera explained that no formal renewal is likely this year, describing the process as lengthy, complicated and anything but quick. The treaty’s built-in annual review mechanism prevents sudden collapse, keeping the pact alive through periodic check-ins that protect supply chains across North America. Legal commitments signed by all parties mean the United States cannot simply discard the agreement without following established procedures, a safeguard that favors long-term planning for industries on both sides of the border.
Bilateral replacements remain unlikely because they would require congressional approval, something the current administration has struggled to secure in past trade matters. Instead, the focus stays on using existing review tools and targeted tariffs while talks continue through scheduled rounds in the coming months. This extended timeline, far from harming Mexico, could open space for more favorable conditions once political pressure in Washington eases.
In the end, the drawn-out spectacle resembles a never-ending reality show where Mexico simply refuses to be voted off the island first.
